Thanks for pulling the numbers Robert.
I wish that gave me more comfort than it does. Unfortunately perception is not always about numbers. And if Oregon & Washington were locks for the B1G I think they’d be in, because their entry wouldn’t effect ND. Yet that was why they were told no. And the longer they wait the more it will a tough sale for a net loss of revenue to teams that voted unanimously for USC/UCLA to say oh yeah we’ll give up $6M a year to bring those two in.
Also Washington at least may be blocked from going anywhere without WSU. Legislation will be introduced next week to accomplish that.
I don’t think the number of teams is in the equation as far as league size. The number that is of concern is per team payout. If you’re increasing it you’re in. If you’re matching it you might be considered. Because the number of teams doesn’t matter, the payout does.
The B1G and SEC have both talked about the breakaway and in every instance it’s about taking all 131 schools out. They want to make way more money than everyone else, but they still need the rest of the schools as a prop to say look we’re still a national thing, and all schools are in play. If they truly went to say a 48 team 2 league only product they’d cut off half the fans of cfb, and would have no claim to being THE champions, only the champion of a league. Also they need 3 ooc opponents every year, and would want the full interest and attention of cfb fans.
At this point I’d think the B2, a mid-tier conference, and then 6 or so lower tier conferences. Right now the Big XII schools get about $6.7M a year from the CFP, and G5 schools get about $300K. So the new expanded version should see them getting $15M and $1M. That’s a small price to pay by the big boys to have their props.
And as you don’t want the lower product that diluted, leaving OSU, BU, WVU, Washington, & Oregon in the mid-tier assures that it can produce the Cinderella that you need to keep the actual playoffs exciting.
Source : From the Web