In Super Bowl LVI, gambling will be left to the box pools, prop bets and smartphone apps — and not the head coaches making the game-changing decisions.
In some of the most analytics-charged moments of this NFL season, the Ravens twice went for 2-point conversions rather than forcing overtime … the Chargers went for a fourth-and-1 from their own 18-yard line when trailing by three points in the third quarter of a must-win game … and the Bills refused to punt or kick a field goal on two fourth-and-short during a game-opening touchdown drive in a playoff shootout.
Youth often is correlated with aggressive new-age thinking when it comes to coaching, but the Bengals’ Zac Taylor, 38, and the Rams’ Sean McVay, 36, tend to be risk-averse. Taylor and McVay — both of whom call offensive plays — finished No. 21 and No. 23, respectively, among 32 head coaches in EdjSports’ CCI ranking — which measures offensive play-calling on fourth down and its percentage impact on outcomes.
“Our process has evolved over the course of three years and even over the course of this season,” Taylor said. “Oftentimes, what stadium you are playing in matters, what defense you are playing matters. We have those discussions over the course of the week — we have them intensively on Saturday, we have them on Sunday before kickoff and they continue on during the game. It’s really a constant flow of information.”
In the high-profile examples cited above, the Ravens, Chargers and Bills went 0-4 in those one-score games.
“You just have to be ready [for anything],” Rams defensive star Aaron Donald said. “A fourth-down stop is like a turnover.”
Former NFL head coach and Steve Mariucci scoffs at the new math in 2-point conversion attempts — “It’s to try to get in your head,” he explained, correlating it to high school football — but he understands the logic behind going for fourth downs in the “big red zone” across the 50-yard line before the 25-yard line.
“We call it ‘analytics’ now. We used to call it ‘self-scout’ and ‘tendencies’ and something else,” said Mariucci, an NFL Network analyst. “We’re going for more fourth downs now … but Bill Belichick has been doing this for 20 years. Of course, he had a good quarterback he trusts. Go for it, if you miss it, [the opponent] gets the ball right there and no-harm no-foul.”
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McVay’s best decision of the season, according to EDJSports, added 6.3 percent in the Game-Winning Chance index when he kept the offense on the field for a fourth-and-1 at the opponent’s 46-yard line with a one-point lead late in the third quarter against the Lions. His worst decision subtracted 5.5 percent when he punted with a 10-point deficit late in the second quarter against the Ravens. The Rams won both games.
Taylor lived more on the extremes, adding 11.3 percent when the Bengals went for a fourth-and-1 from the Vikings’ 48-yard line in overtime rather than almost guaranteeing a tie by punting. He subtracted 8.7 percent by bypassing a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line in the final minute of a regular-season tie game against the Chiefs. A penalty was his savior.
The Bengals won both those games, and ranked No. 3 in the NFL (65 percent) in successfully converting fourth downs. The Rams ranked No. 17 (52.6 percent).
“The stats are a big part of it,” McVay said, “but there are so many layers that involve decision-making with regards to matchups, yardage, the flow of the game, what are the types of things you are anticipating defensively.”
In a hypothetical situation in which the Rams cut into a 14-point deficit with a fourth-quarter touchdown, McVay’s gut says to kick the PAT. The other logic is a 2-point conversion sets up a possible win on a second touchdown, with the safety net of a second-chance 2-point conversion to tie.
“I’m very aware of some of the things they say as far as analytics,” McVay said. “My mindset would be … keep it a seven-point game, which gives you a chance to tie. Or, if you want to go for the win, you have that luxury which you would not have allotted to yourself.”
So, despite what you might think based on the head coaches’ ages and offensive backgrounds, this is not the Super “Analytics” Bowl.
“What drives me nuts is staring at a sheet,” Mariucci said. “You have to have a feel for how your team is playing in that situation, how their team is playing and what the momentum is like. That better stick around.”
Source : From the Web